Whites to Lose Majority Status in U.S. by 2042 - WSJ.com

Whites to Lose Majority Status in U.S. by 2042

Whites will comprise less than half of the U.S. population by 2042, about eight years earlier than previously thought, according to a report to be released by the Census Bureau.

The transition, long predicted by demographers, will spell big changes for the nation's schools and work force. Over the next four decades the non-Hispanic white population will get older, eventually going into decline between 2030 and 2040. Minorities will become a majority of the population aged zero to 17 years first -- in about 15 years -- and move up through age groups for there.

"We are going to become more diverse in more parts of the country and in more of the age structure sooner," said William Frey, senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

The decline is driven by a combination of immigration and lower birthrates. The baby-boom generation, all of which will be more than 65 by about 2030, had fewer children than their parents, and their children are following their lead. The Asian population will continue to increase thanks to immigration and higher birthrates, and the non-Hispanic black population mostly because of higher birthrates. In 2050 the share of the black population will have increased by one percentage point to 15%; Asians will rise to about 9% from 5% today. There is also a growing mixed-race population who identify themselves as two or more races on Census forms.

But it is the Hispanic population that is driving minority growth. The total U.S. population is projected to grow to 439 million by 2050, and most of that growth will come from Hispanics. By 2050 about one in three U.S. residents will be Hispanic. While immigration continues to be a driver of the growing Hispanic population, for the past several years most of the growth has come from births.

"Even with the high levels of immigration, a higher proportion of Hispanics will be U.S.-born," said Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer with the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington.

The shift could stratify American politics. The growing share of retired white baby boomers are more likely to be concerned about issues like pensions and health care for themselves and their parents. The growing share of minorities will be concerned about issues like education and job growth. "You always get that generational shift, but now there's a racial layer over it," says Mr. Passel.

The first group to tip will be children. According to an analysis of census data by Mr. Frey, the zero to 4-year-old population will turn "majority minority" in 2021, followed by 18- to 29-year-olds seven years later. Adults between 45 and 64 will become majority minority in 2050, and seniors sometime after.

That means that as whites retire they will increasingly see the jobs they left go to minorities -- in particular Hispanics -- now making their way through the school system. The report "places even greater emphasis on the need to train new Americans and their children" to assume these occupations, says Mr. Frey.

A number of metropolitan areas have already become "majority minority," with many more soon to follow. In Los Angeles, which has long been a gateway for Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites account for about 30% of the population. According to Mr. Frey's projections the counties surrounding Denver, Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla., will all see their non-Hispanic white population fall to 50% or lower in the next two years.

Shifting demographics may change everything from local and national elections to bilingual education and the rationale behind affirmative-action plans. Already, fast-growing states in the Sunbelt and West are seeing signs that shifting demographics could alter state politics. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is campaigning hard in Nevada and Colorado -- two states that were carried by President Bush in 2004 but have grown more Democratic as the states have added more young and minority voters.